A Minireview of Seismicity in North Central Nigeria and Implications for Seismic Hazard Assessment

Abstract

Recent low-to-intermediate magnitude earthquakes in North Central Nigeria, particularly around Kwoi in Southern Kaduna and Abuja region, have challenged the historical perception of the country as a seismically stable region. This minireview synthesizes current knowledge on this emerging seismic activity, its tectonic controls, and its implications for hazard assessment. The seismicity is fundamentally linked to NE-SW and NW-SW trending fault systems, such as extensions of the North Atlantic Romanche fault, which facilitate stress release within the region's complex basement terrain. The establishment of national seismic networks has enabled better characterization of these events. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) indicates Nigeria faces a non-negligible risk, with estimates suggesting potential for magnitudes up to 7.1. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values show significant spatial variation, with major urban centers like Lagos facing higher hazards. The review underscores critical gaps, including the lack of region-specific Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) and the need for detailed fault characterization. It concludes that comprehensive seismic hazard assessment, integrating geophysical data with seismic monitoring, is imperative for infrastructure resilience, building code development, and disaster preparedness in this newly recognized seismic zone.